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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Pennsylvania has surged: up 818% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+818%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Pennsylvania: up 818% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.3 (95% range 2.8–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.3 (95% range 2.8–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.53.5
20273.12.63.6
20283.12.63.6
20293.22.73.7
20303.32.83.8

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad Mtn.3220251993
Tussey Mtn.2920251993
Landisburg2320251978
Rothrock Sf1720191992
Odin1620251991
Roulette 21620242022
Mill Run1320251978
Ansonia1220252002
Roulette1120211993
Harrisville920251996
Laurel Hill920251978
Whig Hill820251967
Clear Spring820252002
Duboistown820241987
Eldred720221981
Parkwood720251983
Sugar Grove720251980
Sigel620251981
N Washington620251967
N Pine Grove620251969
Russell City620251992
Logue520251989
Cherry Sprs520251989
Mawr Glen520251982
Carsonville520231993

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.