BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.931.8
20261.40.961.8
20271.40.981.9
20281.41.01.9
20291.51.01.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA92023
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK82024
Canadice LNEW-YORK52024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA52023
BranchportNEW-YORK42024
SheridanNEW-YORK42024
PulaskiNEW-YORK42024
GarrettsvileOHIO41991
MiddlefieldOHIO42016
RandolphNEW-YORK32018
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA32024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22023
HamburgNEW-YORK22018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22022
ByronNEW-YORK22016
LenoxOHIO22023
HiramOHIO22019
CloverPENNSYLVANIA22024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12015
CayugaNEW-YORK12018
MacdougallNEW-YORK12019
OrleansNEW-YORK12024
MendonNEW-YORK12018
CastileNEW-YORK12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.