BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 370% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+370%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 370% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.51.01.9
20261.51.12.0
20271.51.12.0
20281.61.12.0
20291.61.12.0

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS342024
HoosierINDIANA272024
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE222018
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY212014
Ozark NfARKANSAS192024
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY182013
ComptonARKANSAS122022
LurtonARKANSAS102023
BelmontINDIANA102024
RupertARKANSAS72024
Levee 2KENTUCKY72019
BrownsvilleKENTUCKY72024
HegiraKENTUCKY62024
CentervilleMISSOURI62024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE62024
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE62024
Silver PtTENNESSEE62024
Trace LewisTENNESSEE62017
CourtlandALABAMA32023
RudyARKANSAS32024
LeveeKENTUCKY31982
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY32019
CascadeMISSOURI32022
WescoMISSOURI32023
BradyvilleTENNESSEE32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.