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Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hooded Warbler In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.09
20270.040.000.09
20280.040.000.09
20290.040.000.09
20300.040.000.09

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RomeoFLORIDA21988
Ft MccoyFLORIDA21989
MicanopyFLORIDA11967
St AugustineFLORIDA11991
San AntonioFLORIDA12007
BelmoreFLORIDA11988
Green SwampFLORIDA12000
GoetheFLORIDA12025
ChassahowitzFLORIDA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.