BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Missouri has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Missouri: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.8 (95% range 5.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.8 (95% range 5.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.24.714
20269.44.914
20279.55.014
20289.75.214
20299.85.314

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cp Girardeau3520241967
Osage Beach3220241997
Whitewater2720241996
Syracuse2520241969
Crane2420241994
Cascade2220241967
Moselle2220242000
Lincoln2120242013
Cassville1820241967
Doe Run1820242015
Mincy1820242013
Kearney1620241996
Hilda1420241994
Graniteville1420241985
Kingsville1420241992
Bland1320241995
House Springs1320242017
Peace Valley1220241975
Williamsvill1220241994
Bennett1220241994
Miller1220242014
West Plains1220242014
Kennett1220242015
Rueter 21220242023
Madison1120241972

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.