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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Missouri has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+166%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Missouri: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 5.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 5.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.55.014
20279.65.214
20289.85.314
20299.95.514
2030105.615

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crane4320251994
Cp Girardeau3820251967
Whitewater3420251996
Palace3020252013
Williamsvill2820251994
Syracuse2520241969
Osage Beach2320251997
Sweden2220251968
Bennett2220251994
Cascade2020251967
Moselle2020252000
Graydon1920251967
Lincoln1920252013
Doe Run1920252015
Mincy1920252013
Barks1720251994
Cassville1620251967
Graniteville1520251985
Eugene1520252013
House Springs1520252017
Rueter 21520252023
Peace Valley1420251975
Centertown1320251973
West Plains1320252014
Kennett1320252015

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.