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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Arkansas has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181125
2026181125
2027181125
2028181125
2029181125

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope3620241967
Crowley'S Ridge3620242011
Four Lakes3420011994
Stark3320241967
Saffell3220191967
Old Milo3020241967
South Bend2920231967
Blakely2819991968
Stephens2720242010
Princeton 22720222022
Augusta 22720162002
Springhill2520222010
Nance2520241992
Zion2420241967
Rudy2420242011
Hollywood2220241967
Ashdown2120231967
Coal Hill2120231967
Maynard2120241967
Hughes2020231967
Eudora1920241967
Poyen1920071967
Magazine Mtn1920211993
Harrisburg1820191967
Sims1820242010

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.