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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Arkansas has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 12–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 12–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181125
2027181125
2028181125
2029181225
2030191225

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend4420251967
Crowley'S Ridge3720252011
Four Lakes3420011994
Saffell3220191967
Hughes3020251967
Magazine Mtn3020251993
Stephens2920252010
Blakely2819991968
Princeton 22720222022
Poyen 22720252008
Augusta 22720162002
Stark2620251967
Nance2620251992
Springhill2520222010
Hatfield 22520252017
Eudora2320251967
Hope2320251967
Zion2320251967
Hollywood2220241967
Old Milo2120251967
Ashdown2120231967
Coal Hill2120231967
Maynard2020251967
Poyen1920071967
Harrisburg1820191967

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.