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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Kansas has surged: up 574% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+574%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Kansas: up 574% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Kansas is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.7–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Kansas is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.7–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.31.55.1
20263.41.55.2
20273.41.65.3
20283.51.65.3
20293.51.75.4

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington2220241972
Melrose1720231967
Dalton1520241971
Trading Post1320242000
Galesburg1220241969
Reece1220242000
Olathe1020181967
Morehead1020242000
Pittsburg920212000
Wreford820241967
Kanopolis820242000
Rock Creek720191968
Le Loup720192000
Bucyrus620242022
Olsburg620242000
Dover520221968
Buckeye520231995
Goessel420242004
Rock Creek 2420242022
Coats320232018
Ellinor320241970
Grantville320221967
Lincolnville320232006
Solomon320191998
Gray220141968

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.