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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Mississippi has surged: up 325% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+325%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Mississippi: up 325% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Mississippi is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 15–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Mississippi is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 15–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221430
2026221430
2027231530
2028231531
2029231531

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
De Soto4920192008
Neely4820121974
Poplarville4619721972
Lucien4520131967
Beverly4220111966
Amite River3520132008
Trace Chickasaw3420242012
Trace Choctaw3320192012
Forest3120241972
Trace Lorman3020192016
Tupelo2920221966
Water Valley2920182015
Tippo2920241996
Star2920242016
Cockrum2820241966
Delta N.F.2820211995
Duck Hill2720241968
Tallahatchie2720241996
Trace Hinds2720222014
Leaf River2620132008
Dundee2520221970
Scooba 22419871983
Lake2320241966
Columbia2320181969
Panther Swamp Nwr2320182016

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.