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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Mississippi has surged: up 357% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+357%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Mississippi: up 357% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 15–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 15–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221530
2027231530
2028231531
2029231531
2030231531

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
De Soto4920192008
Neely4820121974
Poplarville4619721972
Lucien4520131967
Star4420252016
Forest4320251972
Beverly4220111966
Trace Hinds4120252014
Amite River3520132008
Trace Choctaw3320192012
Corinth3120251972
Trace Central3120252007
Tallahatchie3120251996
Trace Lorman3020192016
Tupelo2920221966
Water Valley2920182015
Dahomey Nwr2920252011
Cockrum2820241966
Delta N.F.2820211995
Leaf River2620132008
Dundee2520221970
Lake2420251966
Trace Chickasaw2420252012
Scooba 22419871983
Columbia2320181969

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.