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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Alabama has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Alabama: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Alabama is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 19–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Alabama is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 19–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251832
2026251832
2027251832
2028261933
2029261933

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry8020151999
Rock Chapel5920241995
Sprott-Cahaba Riv5820141999
Epes5720241980
Elamville5720241984
Warrior Std5120241966
Newton5120241966
Liberty City 24920242017
Cottonton4820241966
Triana4820121999
Talladega4620241996
Linden4520231968
Grangeburg4320241966
Riverside4320131999
Calebee4220241993
Borden Springs 24220242001
Greensport4120241966
Bon Secour4120231993
Sprague4020241966
Whitehall4020241983
Stevenson4020241996
Valhermoso Spgs3920101966
Chacaloochee Bay3920192009
Appleton3720231993
Wedowee3720231996

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.