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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Alabama has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Alabama: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 19–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 19–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251832
2027261933
2028261933
2029261933
2030261933

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry8020151999
Rock Chapel5920241995
Sprott-Cahaba Riv5820141999
Epes5720241980
Warrior Std5620251966
Cottonton5420251966
Elamville5320251984
Newton5120241966
Triana4820121999
Harrell4620251968
Linden4520231968
Grangeburg4320241966
Brantley4320251966
Wedgeworth4320251979
Helicon4320251996
Riverside4320131999
Borden Springs 24220242001
Wallsboro4120251966
Bon Secour4120231993
Stevenson4020241996
Valhermoso Spgs3920101966
Fairview3920251989
Chacaloochee Bay3920192009
Mt Olive3820251966
Calebee3720251993

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.