Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Carolina Wren Population Trend in Michigan
Carolina Wren in Michigan has surged: up 756% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
+756%Since 1987
29Routes In State
35Years
Notable Carolina Wren Trends in Michigan
long arc increasecomputed index
Carolina Wren has surged in Michigan: up 755% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Michigan
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Michigan is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.03–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-60%Change by 2029
0.22Projected 2029 index
0.03–0.4095% range
±70.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 0.38 |
| 2026 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| 2027 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| 2028 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
| 2029 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Michigan
| Homer | 6 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Galesburg | 5 | 2024 | 1976 |
| Belding 2 | 4 | 2024 | 2017 |
| Mottville | 4 | 2024 | 1976 |
| Nashville | 3 | 2024 | 2000 |
| Bell Oak | 3 | 2005 | 2002 |
| Deckerville | 2 | 2013 | 2013 |
| Harrietta | 1 | 2019 | 2019 |
| New Buffalo | 1 | 2014 | 1992 |
| Hamburg 2 | 1 | 2024 | 2015 |
| Almena | 1 | 2013 | 1993 |
| Barry S.G.A. | 1 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Scottville | 1 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Big Blue Lk | 1 | 2024 | 2024 |
| Lawrence | 1 | 2024 | 1991 |
| New Troy | 1 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Howardsville | 1 | 2022 | 2018 |
| Monterey | 1 | 2004 | 1991 |
| Brush Creek | 1 | 2015 | 2015 |
| Ola | 1 | 2018 | 2018 |
| Maple Rapids | 1 | 2021 | 2021 |
| Holt | 1 | 2005 | 2005 |
| Fowlerville | 1 | 2006 | 2003 |
| Adrian | 1 | 2018 | 2004 |
| Prattville | 1 | 2021 | 1987 |
Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.