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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Louisiana has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+172%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Louisiana: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Louisiana is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 26–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Louisiana is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 26–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025342443
2026342543
2027342544
2028352544
2029352644

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Atchafalaya12120241989
Kraemer11520241997
Ramah9620241988
Chatham8519751967
Shaw7020241967
Lafitte6919911967
Womack6920241999
Roseland6720241967
Fishville 26720242018
Fishville6520171967
Vinton 26520242011
Clay6020241968
Evelyn5920242004
Flat Creek5620241998
Burr Ferry5320241987
Natchez5320241992
Goodwill5320242004
Greensburg5220221988
Mount Union5220241998
Rayville 25020242009
Franklinton5020242008
Ivan 24820162014
Many4719921989
Mayflower4620241967
Derry4519891967

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.