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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Louisiana has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+183%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Louisiana: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Louisiana is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 26–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Louisiana is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 26–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026352545
2027352545
2028362645
2029362646
2030362646

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Atchafalaya10220251989
Kraemer9220251997
Chatham8519751967
Ramah8020251988
Fishville 28020252018
Roseland7820251967
Shaw7020241967
Lafitte6919911967
Fishville6520171967
Franklinton6420252008
Vinton 26320252011
Womack6120251999
Evelyn5920242004
Bickham5820251972
Mount Union5720251998
Burr Ferry5720251987
Natchez5420251992
Greensburg5220221988
Frogmore5220251998
Hackberry 24920252018
Pearl River4920251989
Trout4820251988
Flat Creek4820251998
Tensas Nwr4820251987
Many4719921989

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.