BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Texas has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+148%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Texas: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.65.911
20268.76.011
20278.86.111
20288.86.212
20298.96.312

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cayuga5520242001
Oak Grove 25320242003
Athens5020241968
Burton5020241996
Chandler4920041968
Weches4820241995
Big Sandy Bith4820242015
Caledonia4720241969
Bon Wier4720241996
Oak Grove4619991967
Diboll4520241968
Alexander St4420241995
Livingston4220241969
Carlos4220241993
Powell Park 24220242022
Easton 24220242014
Fred4120241995
Union Hill4120241994
New Waverly4020241969
Powell Park3520211995
Mt. Selman3420241998
Moon Lake 23420242012
Crossroads3220241967
Liberty Hill3220231968
Paige3220242015

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.