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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Texas has surged: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+180%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Texas: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 6.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 6.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.96.112
20279.06.212
20289.16.312
20299.26.412
20309.26.512

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alexander St6120251995
Paige6120252015
Diboll5820251968
Caledonia5820251969
Cayuga5720252001
Oak Grove 25520252003
Athens5420251968
Easton 25420252014
Arenosa Crk5120251971
Weches5020251995
Chandler4920041968
Big Sandy Bith4820242015
Livingston4620251969
Oak Grove4619991967
Fred4320251995
Burton4320251996
Powell Park 24320252022
New Waverly4220251969
Liberty Hill4220251968
Union Hill4120241994
Hinkles Fer4020251968
Moon Lake 24020252012
Mt. Selman3820251998
Carlos3720251993
Lydia3620251967

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.