Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Carolina Wren Population Trend in Massachusetts
Carolina Wren in Massachusetts has surged: up 67× on the route-weighted index since 1971.
67×Since 1971
27Routes In State
51Years
Notable Carolina Wren Trends in Massachusetts
long arc increasecomputed index
Carolina Wren has surged in Massachusetts: up 67× on the route-weighted index since 1971.
Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Massachusetts
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 4.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-30%Change by 2029
7.3Projected 2029 index
4.2–1095% range
±40.1%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 9.8 |
| 2026 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 9.9 |
| 2027 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 10 |
| 2028 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 10 |
| 2029 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 10 |
Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Massachusetts
| Marion | 42 | 2024 | 1971 |
| Gay Head | 24 | 2024 | 1996 |
| Prattville | 21 | 2019 | 1966 |
| Maynard | 19 | 2022 | 1990 |
| Mansfield | 18 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Wellfleet 2 | 15 | 2024 | 2016 |
| Newburyport | 12 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Holden | 8 | 2024 | 1992 |
| N. Andover | 8 | 2024 | 2002 |
| Monterey | 7 | 2024 | 2019 |
| Littleton | 6 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Belchertown | 6 | 2024 | 2005 |
| S Barre | 6 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Warren 2 | 6 | 2024 | 2010 |
| E Dennis | 5 | 2021 | 1970 |
| Sheffield | 5 | 2022 | 2002 |
| Brockton | 4 | 2019 | 1989 |
| N Oxford | 4 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Chilmark | 3 | 1983 | 1971 |
| Wellfleet | 3 | 2007 | 1987 |
| N Orange | 3 | 2024 | 2014 |
| Chesterfield | 3 | 2024 | 1984 |
| Warren | 2 | 2009 | 1985 |
| Ware River | 1 | 2014 | 2013 |
| Cape Cod Ns | 1 | 1999 | 1991 |
Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.