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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Virginia has surged: up 557% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+557%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Virginia: up 557% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Virginia is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Virginia is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221429
2027221430
2028221530
2029221530
2030231530

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal Swamp6620161992
Finchley6220211994
Tryme4720251975
Pungo4520251975
Brodnax4320251973
Newsoms4120241967
Port Royal3920251977
Hall3820251967
White Stone3820251966
Carters Brdg 23820252015
Branchville3720241966
Blacksburg3620251988
Newville3420241988
Concord3220241967
Nat Tunnel3020251981
Ringgold2920251976
Gladys2920251994
Gloucester2820251992
Fincastle2620251966
Appomattox2620241995
Waverly2519871967
Surry2520251977
Truhart2520241996
Big Island2420251968
Quinby2420251966

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.