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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Virginia has surged: up 581% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+581%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Virginia: up 581% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221429
2026221430
2027221430
2028221530
2029231530

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal Swamp6620161992
Finchley6220211994
Quinby5720241966
Tryme5420241975
Brodnax5120241973
Port Royal4920191977
Newsoms4120241967
White Stone3820241966
Branchville3720241966
Brandon3720241992
Fincastle3620241966
Shipman3620241969
Pungo3520241975
Newville3420241988
Amherst3320241967
Jerome3220231974
Concord3220241967
Blacksburg3120241988
Gladys3020241994
Irisburg2920241976
Covesville2720241967
Dryden2720241991
Edinburg2620241971
Covington2620241966
Big Island2620241968

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.