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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in South Carolina has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in South Carolina is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 18–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in South Carolina is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 18–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025271836
2026271836
2027271836
2028271836
2029271836

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Carolina Wren in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Campobello5220242010
Kiawah Island5020241998
New Ellenton4820242010
Green Sea4520242010
Prosperity4520241992
Dillon4420211970
Rome4320241967
Holly Hill4320241972
Landrum4319921972
Mount Pisgah3920211998
Plum Branch3820241977
Whitmire3820242010
Red Bluff3820241996
Walterboro3720171970
Salem Xrd3520191982
Pinewood3520191998
Johns Isle3319791966
Adams Run3320241988
Cauthens Xrd3320211982
Ridgeway3220212010
Barton Creek3120221967
Anderson3120181977
Foreston3020211966
Ward3020212017
Carvers Bay3020121998

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.