BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in South Carolina has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in South Carolina is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 19–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in South Carolina is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 19–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271936
2027271936
2028271936
2029271936
2030271936

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Carolina Wren in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coward9720251966
Kiawah Island5120251998
Bishopville4720251970
Adams Run4620251988
Holly Hill4520251972
New Ellenton4520252010
Prosperity4520241992
Owings 24520252005
Rome4420251967
Dillon4420211970
Landrum4319921972
Nixville4120251998
Mount Pisgah4020251998
Whitmire3820242010
Red Bluff3620251996
Salem Xrd3520191982
Green Sea3520252010
Pinewood3520191998
Johns Isle3319791966
Cauthens Xrd3320211982
Barton Creek3120221967
Dale3120251998
Anderson3120181977
Carvers Bay3020121998
Blacksburg2920131998

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.