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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in North Carolina has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+171%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in North Carolina: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 27–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 27–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025342543
2026352643
2027352644
2028352644
2029352744

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Carolina Wren in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milltail Cr12420241992
Cypress Cr8720221990
Myrtle Grove7420241966
Shallotte7319911966
Montague7320241990
Wilgrove7120241995
Dismal Swamp7020241993
Mashoes6219821971
Broad Creek6020241993
Newport5820231995
Sheep Ridge5820241994
Cypress Lakes5720242004
Grandy5319751971
Supply5220241992
Dortches5220241990
Maple Hill5020231995
Kinston4820241966
Climax4720241966
Fairview4620241991
Rheasville4620172005
Old Trap4520242010
Merrimon4420231968
Sturgills4420242001
Ernul4420092001
Pinetops4320241997

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.