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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in North Carolina has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+167%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in North Carolina: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in North Carolina is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 27–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in North Carolina is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 27–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026342543
2027352643
2028352644
2029352644
2030352744

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Carolina Wren in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cypress Cr8720221990
Milltail Cr8520251992
Shallotte7319911966
Montague7320251990
Dismal Swamp7020241993
Broad Creek6420251993
Mashoes6219821971
Newport5820231995
Grandy5319751971
Supply5320251992
Cypress Lakes5320252004
Wilgrove5220251995
Climax5120251966
Maple Hill5020231995
Durham5020251990
Kinston4820241966
Genoa4820251990
Rheasville4620172005
Old Trap4520242010
Merrimon4420231968
Ernul4420092001
Pinetops4320241997
Jackson4320171995
Sheep Ridge4320251994
Green Swamp4320062002

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.