BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Kentucky has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+132%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Kentucky: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 11–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 11–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191028
2026191028
2027191128
2028201129
2029201129

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil8119971996
Paintsville6719951979
Carter4120241976
Pippa Passes3319971988
Monticello3220221968
Kehoe 23220242005
Cumberlnd Gp3120181966
Sunnybrook3120221968
Bays Fork2920191999
Hustonville2820241966
Mckee2620241967
Kehoe2619921966
Riverqueen2420242007
Sewell Shop2420231966
Plum2320241966
Phelps2319971979
Johnsonville2220211966
Beattyville 22220242006
Hodgenville 22220232008
Hegira2120241988
Mammoth Cave North2120132009
Levee 22120192007
Kings Mtn2020241966
Million 22020242006
Lebanon Junction2020242000

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.