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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Oklahoma has surged: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+139%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Oklahoma: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 8.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 8.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.75.312
20268.85.512
20278.95.612
20289.15.712
20299.25.913

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heyburn4320241992
Holdenville3420241967
Pushmataha2520231994
Ouachita Nf2420241991
Bethel2420241993
Pocola2120161992
Blanco2020161967
Hee Mountain1920241999
Colcord1820221992
Big Cedar1720241967
Mcalester1619911967
Tatums1620241992
Mt. Herman1620221998
Verden1520171968
Goodwater1520211992
Sandbluff1519951992
Keetonville1420221992
Ft Sill West1319941994
Wichita Mtns1319941994
Mill Creek1220181968
Baron1220231967
Noble1220241967
Elgin1020161994
Cashion1020241992
Duncan1020241997

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.