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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Oklahoma has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+181%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Oklahoma: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.4 (95% range 6.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.4 (95% range 6.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.85.512
20279.05.712
20289.15.812
20299.35.913
20309.46.113

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holdenville4120251967
Heyburn3020251992
Pushmataha2520231994
Pocola2120161992
Blanco2020161967
Ouachita Nf2020251991
Wichita Mtns East2020252004
Hee Mountain1920241999
Colcord1820221992
Big Cedar1720241967
Mcalester1619911967
Mt. Herman1620221998
Mill Creek1520251968
Verden1520171968
Goodwater1520211992
Bethel1420251993
Matoy1420251992
Tatums1420251992
Keetonville1420221992
Ft Sill West1319941994
Wichita Mtns1319941994
Baron1220231967
Wichita Mts West1220252005
Sandbluff1120251992
Noble1020251967

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.