BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in New York has surged: up 101× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

101×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in New York: up 101× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in New York is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.50–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in New York is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.50–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.362.7
20261.60.392.7
20271.60.432.8
20281.60.462.8
20291.70.502.8

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Carolina Wren in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Manorville4620241974
Huntington2320231966
North Easton1720241974
Highland1420221985
Westbrookvle1320192005
Purdy1320221980
Hauppauge1220181998
Naples1220241992
Westhampton1020241976
Austerlitz1020242004
Rhinebeck820241987
Ghent820242004
Oneonta820242001
St Johnsburg820241995
Bedford719921975
Trumansburg720241991
Cicero Ctr720241994
Salem720242009
Cayuga620242014
Macdougall620241976
Mendon620242024
Churchville620241993
W Shokan520191988
E Newark520241992
Orleans520242003

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.