BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in New York has surged: up 104× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

104×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in New York. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in New York is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.60–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in New York is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.60–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.462.8
20271.70.492.9
20281.70.532.9
20291.80.572.9
20301.80.603.0

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Carolina Wren in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Manorville4620241974
Huntington2320231966
Macdougall1720251976
Highland1420221985
Ghent1420252004
Westbrookvle1320192005
Purdy1320221980
Hauppauge1220181998
Cayuga1220252014
Westhampton1020241976
Bedford719921975
Trumansburg720241991
Churchville720251993
Salem720242009
Naples720251992
Mendon620242024
Rhinebeck520251987
W Shokan520191988
Austerlitz520252004
Corbettsvile520251974
E Newark520251992
Rushville520252003
Canadice L520251975
Byron520252002
Clinton520061994

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.