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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in West Virginia has surged: up 226% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+226%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in West Virginia: up 226% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in West Virginia is projected to rise about 112% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 8.8–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.8–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in West Virginia is projected to rise about 112% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 8.8–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026158.022
2027158.222
2028168.423
2029168.623
2030168.823

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Carolina Wren in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olcott4320241966
Stollings3820211986
Yawkey3620241966
Sleepy Creek3219901967
Breeden3120241986
Henderson3120232002
Welch3020251980
Spencer2720241986
Josephs Mill2720241993
Mcdonald2320231987
Hubbardstown2220251966
Cedarville2120231982
Martinsburg2120251966
Ghent1820251978
Monongah1820221966
Paradise1720251966
Clinton1720251966
Rockport1520251966
Hanover1420251980
Clear Creek1220251988
Sutton1220251976
Lost River1220251996
Bramwell1120251978
Sugar Grove1120251970
Slate1120251981

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.