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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in West Virginia has surged: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+296%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in West Virginia: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in West Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.4–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in West Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.4–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025158.622
2026168.823
2027169.023
2028169.223
2029169.423

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Carolina Wren in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Welch4720231980
Hanover4320241980
Olcott4320241966
Stollings3820211986
Clear Creek3620241988
Yawkey3620241966
Rockport3520241966
Hix3220241970
Sleepy Creek3219901967
Breeden3120241986
Hubbardstown3120231966
Henderson3120232002
Smoot3020241980
Clendenin2920241979
Bramwell2820231978
Nicut2820241986
Spencer2720231986
Josephs Mill2720241993
Pt Pleasant2420231973
Washburn2420221974
Bebee2420241972
Mcdonald2320231987
Ghent2220241978
Martinsburg2220241966
Cedarville2120231982

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.