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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Tennessee has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+183%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Tennessee: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Tennessee is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 21–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Tennessee is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 21–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025262033
2026272033
2027272034
2028272134
2029282134

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corryton Rd8120191966
Lovell6620191966
Mansfield4420241966
Jones Gap4420191982
Big Sandy4020241966
Collinwood4020241966
Petersburg3820191966
Trace Lewis3520172013
Climer3420041967
Campbellsville3320191966
Smokey Jct3120221966
Signal Mtn2920241979
Silerton2920241966
Humboldt2920241966
Moscow2820241967
Trenton2820231966
Bradyville2820211966
Silver Pt2720241966
Willis Sprng2720231994
White House2620191966
Oliver Spgs2620221966
Mt Olive2620241966
Cornpone2620241990
Pond Creek2420241966
Union Hill2320241967

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.