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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Tennessee has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+188%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Tennessee: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Tennessee is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 21–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Tennessee is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 21–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026261933
2027272033
2028272034
2029272034
2030282134

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corryton Rd8120191966
Lovell6620191966
Jones Gap4420191982
Humboldt4020251966
Big Sandy3920251966
Petersburg3820191966
Trace Lewis3520172013
Climer3420041967
Campbellsville3320191966
Collinwood3120251966
Smokey Jct3120221966
Moscow3020251967
Brownsville3020251966
Tibbs3020251966
Silerton2920241966
Mansfield2820251966
Trenton2820231966
Bradyville2820211966
Silver Pt2720241966
Willis Sprng2720231994
White House2620191966
Oliver Spgs2620221966
Mt Olive2620241966
Cornpone2620241990
Tiptonville2320251966

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.