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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Florida has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has risen sharply in Florida: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 36 (95% range 28–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
28–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 36 (95% range 28–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026352742
2027352743
2028352843
2029362843
2030362843

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale12020111987
Pinetta11220251987
Seminole Hills 29320222002
Olustee9020251992
Miller Xrds8820191987
Broad Branch8620251967
Dowling Park7920251987
Belmore7420241966
Defuniak Spr7120221987
Scottsmoor6820251968
Belmont6720251966
Goethe6520252010
Kenansville6220251967
New Hope6020112009
Covington5520211966
Miccosukee5420251966
St Augustine5320251967
Hildreth5320091987
Ft Mccoy5320251987
Cross City5320231988
Ocala5220251987
Gardner5119991987
Hildreth 25120252010
Tamiami5019741966
Sanderson 24820242022

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.