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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Florida has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has risen sharply in Florida: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 36 (95% range 28–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
28–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 36 (95% range 28–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025352742
2026352743
2027352743
2028352843
2029362843

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad Branch13220241967
Lovedale12020111987
Seminole Hills 29320222002
Pinetta9120241987
Miller Xrds8820191987
Osceola8020241991
Dowling Park7820231987
Belmore7420241966
Defuniak Spr7120221987
Betts7020241987
Belmont6620241966
Kenansville6120241967
New Hope6020112009
Miccosukee5920241966
Goethe5920242010
Hildreth 25820242010
Olustee5820221992
Mt. Olive5720242002
Alligator Pt5620241987
Covington5520211966
Hixtown Swmp5520241987
Hildreth5320091987
Cross City5320231988
Scottsmoor5220241968
Bloxham5120221987

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.