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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Ohio has surged: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+366%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Ohio: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Ohio is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 2.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Ohio is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 2.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.82.311
20276.92.411
20286.92.511
20297.02.512
20307.12.612

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow3420241992
Coal Run2719921966
Omega2520241966
Ash Ridge2420211992
Stonecreek2320251996
Dresden2020251966
Scioto Trail2020131992
New Marshfld1920241966
Wilgus1920191992
Smithfield1720251971
Darrtown1720211966
Keene1720231992
Enon1620251985
Pomeroy1420221966
Baxter Ridge1320252003
West Elkton1320121992
Birmingham1220241988
Lucerne1120251994
Harveysburg 21120251997
Pittsfield1020241993
Dunlap1019881966
Harveysburg1019961966
Scioto Furn1020221992
Ashley1020181988
Marion920231966

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.