BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Carolina Wren in Ohio has surged: up 374% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+374%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Wren Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Ohio: up 374% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Ohio is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 2.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Ohio is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 2.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.82.211
20266.82.311
20276.92.411
20287.02.512
20297.12.612

Carolina Wren Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow3420241992
Rome2920241966
Dresden2820241966
Coal Run2719921966
Harveysburg 22720241997
Omega2520241966
Ash Ridge2420211992
Stonecreek2120241996
Scioto Trail2020131992
Smithfield1920241971
New Marshfld1920241966
Bolins Mills1920241967
Wilgus1920191992
South Olive1820241993
Darrtown1720211966
Keene1720231992
Wayne N.F.1520241992
Lucerne1420241994
Lattasburg1420241969
Ray1420241992
Pomeroy1420221966
Marion 21420242024
West Elkton1320121992
Birmingham1220241988
Mohican S.F.1220241992

Carolina Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.