BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker

PicidaeForest birdsSphyrapicus nuchalis

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

11×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
370RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Red-naped Sapsucker

The Red-naped Sapsucker (Sphyrapicus nuchalis) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 370 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 13 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-naped Sapsucker. See the full index history below.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.10–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.10–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.100.18
20260.140.100.18
20270.140.100.18
20280.140.100.18
20290.140.100.19

Where the Red-naped Sapsucker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker, sized by most recent count.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend by State

Red-naped Sapsucker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaskainsufficient datan/a1
Arizona-41%199211
Californiainsufficient datan/a1
Colorado+211%197172
Idaho+79%197239
Montana+587%197053
Nevadainsufficient datan/a5
New Mexico+45%197714
Oregon+113%197244
South Dakota13×197512
Utah+177%197137
Washington+109%197034
Wyoming+7%197647

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Red-naped Sapsucker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-43%19756
Great Basin+44%197259
Northern Rockies+202%1970148
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+461%1970124
Badlands and Prairies+951%197523
Sierra Madre Occidental-49%19949

Red-naped Sapsucker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 1043% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.