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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-49%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-naped Sapsucker in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Red-naped Sapsucker In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 72% by 2027 — from 0.15 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 72% by 2027 — from 0.15 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.050.000.14
20240.050.000.14
20250.050.000.14
20260.040.000.14
20270.040.000.13

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA22022
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22022
FlagstaffARIZONA12006
PrescottARIZONA11974
MaineARIZONA11997
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA11992
Carr MtnARIZONA11996
SprucedaleARIZONA11999
DragoonARIZONA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.