BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 461% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+461%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 461% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-naped Sapsucker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.89 (95% range 0.53–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.89 (95% range 0.53–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.491.2
20260.850.501.2
20270.870.511.2
20280.880.521.2
20290.890.531.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heber Mtn.UTAH122024
Steamboat L.COLORADO102024
Dunckley PasCOLORADO92024
SoapstoneUTAH82024
Colona 2COLORADO72021
Groundhog RsCOLORADO72024
Moon PassCOLORADO72011
Navajo LakeUTAH72024
Pinos CreekCOLORADO61990
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH52023
Fox ParkWYOMING52024
Lake CityCOLORADO42002
ComoCOLORADO42024
Uintah NfUTAH41994
La Sal 2UTAH42006
La Sal 3UTAH42022
Lost Cr. ResUTAH42015
Sybille CynWYOMING41980
YampaCOLORADO32023
BufordCOLORADO32016
Cheesman LkCOLORADO32021
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO31982
CastletonCOLORADO32024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO32024
FlattopsCOLORADO32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.