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Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-naped Sapsucker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 506% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+506%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 506% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-naped Sapsucker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.56–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.56–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.511.2
20270.880.521.2
20280.890.531.2
20290.900.551.3
20300.910.561.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Steamboat L.COLORADO192025
Heber Mtn.UTAH122025
Dunckley PasCOLORADO112025
SoapstoneUTAH112025
CastletonCOLORADO82025
Lost LakeCOLORADO72025
Colona 2COLORADO72021
Pinos CreekCOLORADO61990
Blackhead PkCOLORADO52025
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH52023
Fox ParkWYOMING52025
Lake CityCOLORADO42002
Deadman Rd.COLORADO42025
ThomasvilleCOLORADO42025
Groundhog RsCOLORADO42025
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO42025
Heeney 2COLORADO42025
Navajo LakeUTAH42025
Uintah NfUTAH41994
La Sal 2UTAH42006
La Sal 3UTAH42022
Lost Cr. ResUTAH42015
Sybille CynWYOMING41980
YampaCOLORADO32023
BufordCOLORADO32016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.