BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-6%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.18 (95% range 0.02–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.18 (95% range 0.02–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.020.34
20270.180.020.34
20280.180.020.34
20290.180.020.34
20300.180.020.34

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Taylor 2320242014
Ojo Sarco220241968
Reserve220221996
Horse Mtn220131968
Angel Fire220011992
Vallecitos220221994
Cloudcroft220251979
Dulce120042003
Cebolla120221977
Angel Fire 2120232005
Bluewater Lake120101999
Gallinas120192000
Mcgaffey120032003
Mt. Taylor120111996

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.