BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+45%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.030.35
20260.190.030.35
20270.190.040.35
20280.190.040.35
20290.190.040.35

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft320241979
Mt. Taylor 2320242014
Ojo Sarco220241968
Reserve220221996
Horse Mtn220131968
Angel Fire220011992
Vallecitos220221994
Dulce120042003
Cebolla120221977
Angel Fire 2120232005
Bluewater Lake120101999
Gallinas120192000
Mcgaffey120032003
Mt. Taylor120111996

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.