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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-59%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.17
20270.060.000.17
20280.060.000.17
20290.060.000.17
20300.060.000.17

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine220222005
Sawmill219921990
Tsaile220231993
Tonto Vill.119921992
Dragoon119971997
Carr Mtn119961996
Flagstaff120061994
Sprucedale119991992
Prescott119741974
Dry Park120251992
Williams120252025
Maine119971997

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.