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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Utah has surged: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+177%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Utah: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Utah is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.16–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Utah is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.16–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.150.61
20260.380.150.61
20270.390.160.61
20280.390.160.62
20290.390.160.62

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heber Mtn.1220241999
Soapstone820241997
Navajo Lake720241970
Red Spur Mtn.520232006
Lost Cr. Res420151995
La Sal 2420062003
Uintah Nf419941987
La Sal 3420222007
Beck319871969
Logan Canyon320191997
Saleratus Cr220112003
Beaver220211980
Lynn220112011
Moon Lake220032002
Dixie Nf220241994
Hanna220241997
Wasatch Nf220241992
Moon Lake 2120212004
Hyrum119791976
Altonah120152015
Grizzly Rdge120222000
E. Bear Lake120112000
Bryce Canyon120061997
Woodruff120192007
Randolph120212000

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.