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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Utah has surged: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+218%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Utah: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Utah is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.18–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Utah is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.18–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.170.63
20270.400.170.63
20280.400.170.63
20290.410.170.64
20300.410.180.64

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heber Mtn.1220251999
Soapstone1120251997
Red Spur Mtn.520232006
Lost Cr. Res420151995
La Sal 2420062003
Navajo Lake420251970
Uintah Nf419941987
La Sal 3420222007
Beck319871969
Logan Canyon320191997
Ant Flat-Ogden Can320251996
Saleratus Cr220112003
Beaver220211980
Lynn220112011
Moon Lake220032002
Dixie Nf220241994
Hanna220241997
Ferron220252000
Wasatch Nf220241992
Fish Lake Nf220251993
Moon Lake 2120212004
Hyrum119791976
Altonah120152015
Grizzly Rdge120222000
E. Bear Lake120112000

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.