BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in South Dakota has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

13×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in South Dakota: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in South Dakota is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.15–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in South Dakota is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.15–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.111.2
20260.680.121.2
20270.690.131.3
20280.700.141.3
20290.710.151.3

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Fox1120171992
Hill City720131992
Englewood620211992
Long Draw620241992
Custer320241974
Silver City320121992
Rochford220181992
Hazelrodt220241992
Elk Mountain220041998
Norbeck220021992
Lightning Cr120221994
Roubaix Lk119911970

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.