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Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Washington has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+109%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Washington: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Washington is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.38–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Washington is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.38–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.351.0
20260.680.361.0
20270.690.371.0
20280.700.381.0
20290.710.381.0

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omak Creek1420241998
Winthrop420221984
Cusick420241982
Leavenworth420171984
Deer Park420151994
Keller320071968
Rimrock320161969
Nighthawk320241993
Laurier320192001
Tonasket220181983
Ellensburg220221997
Carlton220221992
L. Wenatchee220101993
Cloverland220042004
Twisp120241993
Chewelah120171977
Turnbull Nwr120161993
L Pend O Nwr120241995
Reardan120241974
Cougar119731973
Asotin120081989
Sullivan Lake 2120232003
Twin Lakes120241983
Wilbur119971986
Ewan120091986

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.