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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Montana has surged: up 587% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+587%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Montana: up 587% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Montana is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.49–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Montana is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.49–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.451.2
20260.820.461.2
20270.840.471.2
20280.850.481.2
20290.860.491.2

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swan Lake520242015
Chestnut420241969
Red Rock420241980
East Glacier Park420242015
Maynard Coulee420242017
Inside Road320241990
Sula320241977
Heart Butte320242015
Libby Dam220241979
St Mary220081971
Victor220231994
Greenough220031995
Elevation Mt220221996
Elliston220241979
Two Dot220161981
Fort Logan220242018
Whitefish Lake220242016
Greenoagh 2220112005
Greenoagh 3220242014
Thompson Riv220231993
Painted Rock220221992
Kalispell120241977
Logan Pass120241980
Threemile Wa120231993
Cramer Creek120182003

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.