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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Colorado has surged: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+243%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-naped Sapsucker Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Colorado: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Colorado is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.48–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Colorado is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.48–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.441.1
20270.800.451.1
20280.810.461.1
20290.810.471.2
20300.820.481.2

Red-naped Sapsucker Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Steamboat L.1920251996
Dunckley Pas1120251992
Castleton820251988
Lost Lake720251990
Colona 2720212015
Pinos Creek619901988
Blackhead Pk520251992
Lake City420021988
Stillwater Pass 2420252011
Deadman Rd.420251994
Thomasville420251997
Groundhog Rs420251992
Heeney 2420252025
Yampa320231970
Buford320161992
Pagosa Spgs319821969
Como320251996
Haycamp Mesa320231999
Douglas Pass220241982
Rio Grnds Rs220242002
Weston Pass 2220242001
Willow Peak220211990
Tarryall220251988
Uncompahgre220251988
Guffey220221995

Red-naped Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.