BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-naped Sapsucker In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

11×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Red-naped Sapsucker In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.14–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.14–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.500.110.88
20270.500.120.89
20280.510.120.90
20290.520.130.90
20300.520.140.91

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA112017
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA102025
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA72013
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62021
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
SundanceWYOMING62025
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA32012
Two DotMONTANA22016
Maynard CouleeMONTANA22025
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA22025
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA22002
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA22004
HighwoodMONTANA12022
ShawmutMONTANA12005
Reed PointMONTANA12014
Chuffey SpringMONTANA12019
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11991
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA12025
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA12022
MoskeeWYOMING12001
MeadowdaleWYOMING11989
Moskee 2WYOMING12021
Moskee 3WYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.