BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 951% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+951%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 951% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Red-naped Sapsucker In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.14–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.14–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.110.89
20260.510.120.90
20270.520.130.91
20280.520.140.91
20290.530.140.92

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA112017
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA72013
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62021
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
SundanceWYOMING52024
Maynard CouleeMONTANA42024
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA32012
Two DotMONTANA22016
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA22002
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA22004
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA22018
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
HighwoodMONTANA12022
ShawmutMONTANA12005
Reed PointMONTANA12014
Chuffey SpringMONTANA12019
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11991
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA12022
MoskeeWYOMING12001
MeadowdaleWYOMING11989
Moskee 2WYOMING12021
Moskee 3WYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.