BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-naped Sapsucker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Northern Rockies has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+202%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Northern Rockies: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-naped Sapsucker In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.52–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.52–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.491.5
20261.00.501.5
20271.00.511.6
20281.00.511.6
20291.00.521.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omak CreekWASHINGTON142024
CascadeIDAHO111984
Lolo PassIDAHO72016
Buckskin MtnWYOMING72021
Green RiverWYOMING71982
CoolinIDAHO62024
GraniteOREGON62007
Savery 2WYOMING62024
Swan LakeMONTANA52024
FloraOREGON52005
NaplesIDAHO42024
ChestnutMONTANA42024
Red RockMONTANA42024
East Glacier ParkMONTANA42024
DesolationOREGON41998
CusickWASHINGTON42024
Deer ParkWASHINGTON42015
GrangevilleIDAHO32024
N Fork Cda RIDAHO32016
Rochat DivdeIDAHO32023
SulaMONTANA32024
Heart ButteMONTANA32024
Inside RoadMONTANA32024
WickiupOREGON32022
Donelly 2OREGON32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.