BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-naped Sapsucker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Red-naped Sapsucker in Northern Rockies has surged: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+195%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-naped Sapsucker has surged in Northern Rockies: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-naped Sapsucker In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.49–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-naped Sapsucker in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.49–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.990.471.5
20271.00.471.5
20281.00.481.5
20291.00.491.5
20301.00.491.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Red-naped Sapsucker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omak CreekWASHINGTON142024
CascadeIDAHO111984
Lolo PassIDAHO72016
Green RiverWYOMING71982
St RegisMONTANA62025
ClintonMONTANA62025
East Glacier ParkMONTANA62025
GraniteOREGON62007
FloraOREGON52005
ChallisIDAHO42025
Marble CreekIDAHO42025
Sawtooth City 2IDAHO42025
Heart ButteMONTANA42025
Inside RoadMONTANA42025
DesolationOREGON41998
CusickWASHINGTON42025
Deer ParkWASHINGTON42015
WilsonWYOMING42025
Buckskin MtnWYOMING42025
GrangevilleIDAHO32024
N Fork Cda RIDAHO32016
SulaMONTANA32024
WickiupOREGON32022
KellerWASHINGTON32007
LaurierWASHINGTON32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.