BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Kentucky

All statesKentucky

59 species in this guild. As a group they are -17%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Kentucky Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.6 (95% range 5.6–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.6 (95% range 5.6–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.75.77.7
20276.75.77.7
20286.65.67.6
20296.65.67.6
20306.65.67.6

Member Species In Kentucky

Forest birds species in Kentucky.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-97%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-80%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-73%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-73%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-70%
American RedstartParulidae-69%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-61%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-57%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-57%
Blue JayCorvidae-52%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae-51%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-50%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-42%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-39%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-38%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-32%
Bell's VireoVireonidae-31%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae-26%
Tufted TitmouseParidae-18%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae-18%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae-17%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-16%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-14%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-10%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-8%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae-5%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-4%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae-2%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+5%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+15%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+15%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+15%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+19%
OvenbirdParulidae+27%
Pine WarblerParulidae+34%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+34%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+36%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+38%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+38%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+39%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+40%
American RobinTurdidae+41%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+44%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+47%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+50%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+52%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+53%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+90%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+97%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae+100%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+134%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+151%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+171%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+321%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+660%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+977%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae16×
Northern ParulaParulidae23×
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae29×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.