BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Kentucky has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Kentucky is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Kentucky is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.817
2027115.717
2028115.617
2029115.416
2030115.316

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paintsville8819951979
Staffordsvil6019971996
Boxville3919831966
Joy3920231966
Kehoe3119921966
Merrimac2620241967
Morganfield2620252022
Lovelacevile2520251967
Glencoe2520181966
Riverqueen2420252007
Pine Ridge2219781966
Mckee2120251967
Johnsonville2120211966
Hustonville1920251966
Cedar Grove1820251966
Hudson1820251966
East Union1820251966
Levee 21820192007
Hodgenville1720031967
Sulphur Lick1620241966
Hegira1620241988
Levee1619821966
Gesling1619731967
Campton1620211979
Hodgenville 21520232008

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.