BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 9.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 9.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.44.08.8
20276.23.98.6
20286.13.78.5
20296.03.68.4
20305.83.48.2

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield2720251966
Collinwood2420251966
Brownsville2220251966
Silerton2220241966
Tibbs2120251966
Big Sandy2020251966
Humboldt1820251966
Pawpaw 21720252013
Wrigley1620221966
Campbellsville1520171966
Silver Pt1520241966
Smokey Jct1520221966
Indian Mound1319981966
Indian Mound 21320232004
Bradyville1220211966
Walland919891966
Pond Creek820251966
Union Hill820241967
Pawpaw720121966
Trenton720231966
Glen720251967
Climer720041967
Jefferson Cty620111966
Jones Gap620191982
Tiptonville520251966

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.