BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.5–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.5–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.34.08.6
20266.23.98.5
20276.03.88.3
20285.93.68.2
20295.73.58.0

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield3020241966
Silerton2220241966
Collinwood1920241966
Brownsville1720241966
Tibbs1720241966
Big Sandy1720241966
Humboldt1720241966
Wrigley1620221966
Campbellsville1520171966
Silver Pt1520241966
Smokey Jct1520221966
Indian Mound1319981966
Indian Mound 21320232004
Bradyville1220211966
Walland919891966
Union Hill820241967
Pawpaw720121966
Moscow720241966
Trenton720231966
Glen720241967
Climer720041967
Cades Cove720241991
Pond Creek620241966
Jasper620241967
Jefferson Cty620111966

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.