BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Texas has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Texas. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.000.68
20270.320.000.68
20280.320.000.67
20290.320.000.67
20300.310.000.67

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Cyn.1420092001
Dove Mtn.1320062003
Winnie720251968
Arenosa Crk720002000
Danbury620251971
Thornton 3520242024
Sejita520242012
Bayside520102010
Waka420181997
Port Acres420251994
Tenmile420192015
Smyrna420101995
San Pedro420141997
Adamsville320252023
Athens320111968
Clarendon320242022
Weches320251995
Heidelberg320242013
Big Sandy Bith320192016
Smyrna 2320232011
Stowell220251971
Lone Oak220092009
Oak Grove219771977
Peach Creek219841984
Diboll220121968

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.