BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 29 (95% range 24–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 29 (95% range 24–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026282433
2027282433
2028282433
2029292433
2030292433

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brook Park7020251998
Wigwam Bay6720231967
Debs6220251969
Big Stone6220121995
Sherburne Nr5820251990
Ashby5620211997
Sherry Lake5520221969
Minnetonka5120251969
Waskish5120251978
Badger5120181978
Mahtowa5020231993
Glyndon4920251978
Erie4920171976
Mille Lacs4820241968
Floodwood4720251967
Knapp4620251967
Lude4620251978
Lake Bronson4420111978
Pine River4320251967
Grygla4220171976
Oklee3920211969
Le Center3920251993
Appleton3820251978
Backus3820251967
Brainerd3820241993

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.