BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Virginia has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Virginia is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Virginia is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.62.66.7
20264.62.56.7
20274.52.56.6
20284.52.46.5
20294.42.46.5

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal Swamp4220161992
Newville3420241988
Clinchport2919781967
Branchville2720241966
Truhart2220241996
Newsoms2020241967
Ft Pickett N1819951993
Stickleyvill1719901975
Port Royal1620191977
Cornland1620141975
Pungo1620241975
Backbay1419741966
Ft Pickett S1419951993
Tryme1320241975
Brodnax1320241973
Finchley1320211994
Mannboro1120241967
Quinby1120241966
Brandy Station1120242017
Chincoteag W1020241992
Concord920241967
Hall920231967
Surry920241977
Irisburg920241976
Partlow820151977

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.