BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in New Mexico has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+131%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has surged in New Mexico: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in New Mexico is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.13–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in New Mexico is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.13–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.110.49
20260.310.120.50
20270.310.120.50
20280.310.120.50
20290.320.130.51

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita 21320242022
Laborcita720191993
Angel Fire519961992
Mesilla320001992
Cebolla219971973
San Antonio219771974
Dulce220242000
Angel Fire 2220232007
Rodeo219941994
Red Rock220241992
Columbus220031995
Logan220111990
Farmington119781978
Ojo Sarco120191969
Farley120112011
Torreon120082000
Pecos120122002
Valencia119971975
Cooley Lake120211979
Jornada119881988
Cloudcroft120171981
Maxwell120241996
La Plata 2120152014
Shiprock120191997
Counselor120022002

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.