BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in New Jersey has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-12%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in New Jersey is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in New Jersey is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.60.0014
20266.50.0014
20276.30.0014
20286.20.0014
20296.10.0014

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 33020242023
Croton2320071970
Hope2219941970
Pomona2220241978
Spraguetown 22020072000
Friendship1820241977
Clarksville1719911969
Deepwater1319771969
Sandbrook1320241969
Kemah Lake1320241966
Croton 21120242008
Ramseysburg1020241995
Albion920221966
Bennett Mill920001966
Dover920231977
Spraguetown919991977
Villas819811979
Gillette720241988
Roosevelt720221986
Del Haven719911991
Winslow720241989
Robbinsville619791966
Estell Manor620222022
Ocean City520241979
Toms River420241966

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.