BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181521
2027181521
2028181521
2029181521
2030181521

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne Lk6620251980
Horsehead Lk5520251980
Turtle Mtns4420251980
Cooperstown4320251969
Buchanan4320251967
Emerado4020251973
Forman3120251968
Lakota3020091968
Wimbledon2620251981
Montpelier2620251990
Sydney2519831967
Danzig2420141982
Loraine2320191982
Kempton2020171967
Wild Rose1920251982
Niles1820251989
Danzig 21820252019
Edgeley1720251980
Rolla1620241969
Denbigh1520251968
Nash1420171980
Regan1320251968
Braddock1320231988
Bowman1220251967
Gorham1220251968

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.