BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181521
2026181521
2027181521
2028181521
2029181521

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne Lk5820241980
Cooperstown4220241969
Horsehead Lk4120241980
Turtle Mtns3820241980
Emerado3520241973
Buchanan3120241967
Lakota3020091968
Wimbledon2720241981
Sydney2519831967
Edgeley2420241980
Danzig2420141982
Danzig 22420242019
Forman2320241968
Loraine2320191982
Braddock2120221988
Montpelier2120241990
Kempton2020171967
Denbigh1820241968
Rolla1620241969
Nash1420171980
Powers Lake1320241980
Parshall1220131982
Dickinson1120241968
Abercrombie1120121967
Bowman1120241967

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.