BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181124
2026181125
2027181125
2028181125
2029181125

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eldred3720221973
English Ctr3519891968
Harmonsburg3420231966
Roulette3420211970
Arnot3320241969
Susquehanna3320241971
N Washington3220241967
Austinville3220241966
Starlight3219991970
Little Marsh3120241971
Duvall3120211974
Ferris Crnrs3020241966
Sproul Sf-B3020242002
Betula2920221973
Poyntelle2920241969
Sproul Sf-A2920242002
Sugar Grove2820241980
Roulette 22820242022
Rush2720241970
Sigel2620241981
Hop Bottom2520241967
Wild Creek2420241988
Akeley2219791966
Mawr Glen2220241966
Bow Bridge2220231969

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.