BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181124
2027181124
2028181124
2029181124
2030181125

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sigel4820251981
N Washington3820251967
Eldred3720221973
English Ctr3519891968
Jefferson3520251966
Sugar Grove3520251980
Roulette3420211970
Austinville3420251966
Arnot3320251969
Poyntelle3320251969
Starlight3219991970
Little Marsh3120241971
Duvall3120211974
Roulette 23120252022
Betula2920221973
Honesdale2720251972
Virginia2720251970
Sproul Sf-B2720252002
Ferris Crnrs2420251966
Mawr Glen2420251966
Sproul Sf-A2420252002
Martinsburg2320251970
Garrett2320251971
Akeley2219791966
Hop Bottom2220251967

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.