BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Utah has surged: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+379%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has surged in Utah: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Utah is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.36–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Utah is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.36–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.590.310.87
20270.600.320.88
20280.610.340.90
20290.630.350.91
20300.640.360.92

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Callao2020251994
Bear River920251992
Lynn420251986
Bicknell420251999
Moab420251987
Promontory320251986
Neponset Res220132007
Grouse Creek219871986
Randolph220251992
Vernon220112009
Moon Lake219971997
Wellington 2220092003
Castle Dale220182006
Hill Creek219941994
Hatch220252014
Jensen220221995
Wellington 3120192019
Moon Lake 2120232016
Salt Springs120251997
Timpie Spg120001982
Altonah120072007
Notch Peak120061986
Oak City120232023
Goshen120251969
Woodruff120242007

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.