BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Arkansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Arkansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.90.385.3
20272.80.285.2
20282.70.175.1
20292.50.075.0
20302.40.004.9

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Four Lakes4920011994
Farwell1820182010
Poyen1320071967
Hollywood1320241967
Princeton 21320222022
Locust Bayou1020231967
Dry Fork 21020252024
Poyen 21020252008
Blakely819991968
Crows719911967
Augusta720011967
Havana720212010
Nance720251992
Dry Fork720232000
Old Milo620251967
Eudora620251967
Hughes620251967
Stephens620252010
Rupert520241967
Fulton420251967
Compton420221967
England420252010
Gillett420252010
Boston Mtn.420141994
Wilson420251993

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.