BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in North Carolina has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.7 (95% range 3.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.7 (95% range 3.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.04.312
20268.04.212
20277.94.112
20287.84.012
20297.73.911

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mashoes8919821971
Milltail Cr8020241992
Dismal Swamp6920241993
Shallotte3719911966
Chowan River3520062002
Washington3320242001
Sheep Ridge3120241994
Jackson2720171995
California2520131972
Reelsboro2420191997
Green Swamp2420062002
Cherryville2319681968
Broad Creek2320241993
Arapahoe2219951966
Pinetops2120241998
Spring Hope2120242002
Rhems1919931990
California 21820242014
Mattamuskeet1820211998
Newport1720231995
Ernul1620092001
Cayton1620242010
Sturgills1520242001
Rheasville1520172005
Mount Airy1420242000

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.