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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-65%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Alaska is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Alaska is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.72
20260.110.000.71
20270.100.000.70
20280.090.000.70
20290.080.000.69

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kuiu Island820102009
Juneau520241992
Haines420241972
Harlequin L.420241995
Hyder320091994
Whale Pass220192008
Mt. Fairplay220172000
Mitkof Isle220241988
Yakutat220241997
Eagle120241996
Slana120241999
Tower Bluffs120152015
Chistochina119931993
Northway120231996
Stikine River120221998
Cantwell120172017
Craig120241998
Ketchikan120001971
Skagway120182004
Cordova120172004
Chichagof Is120241997
Thorne Bay 2120222022
Zimovia Strt120162005
Chicken120242018
Petersburg119871987

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.