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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Arizona has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Yellowthroat Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Arizona is projected to rise about 327% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.23–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+327%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±199.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Arizona is projected to rise about 327% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.23–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.211.2
20260.710.211.2
20270.720.221.2
20280.720.221.2
20290.730.231.2

Common Yellowthroat Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Araby1220231992
Laguna720231976
Cutter 2620182015
Skull Valley320241996
Florence219881988
Dateland220151997
Sunizona219801980
Red Rock 2220192015
Cibola Lake220241993
Prescott120031992
Pomerene120241968
San Simon119841984
Peña Blanca119781976
Patagonia120221969
Palo Verde 2120232014
Tonto Vill.119921992
Palo Verde120131993
Bartlett Res120162016
Alpine120082008
Red Rock120062006
Redington120091993
Amado120162006
Peach Spring120152015
Casa Grande120191995
Carr Mtn120231989

Common Yellowthroat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.